Williams, Joel Mann
May 21, 2015
Climate change, modeling, global temperatures, Vostok Ice Core,
Observations about global temperatures and modeling are included. The current "global warm period" is compared to those of the previous three with each beginning at 1.5C below the current level and ending 1.5C below this level. Initial warming is rapid (roughly 2C/500-years) while cooling during the last half of the cycle is slow (roughly -2C/6000-years). Planet earth did not see the excessive warming of past cycles during the current heating. It should now be very near the end of a typical 12,000-year "global heat wave", however, since it has been in it for 11,400 years. The analyses in this paper are based on the reported Vostok Ice Core Data. An addendum shows that climate modeling programs are exponentially deviating from the relatively constant, observed global temperatures for the past 35-years. A figure shows that all of the recent temperatures fall within 1-sigma of the global mean temperature for the past millennium.